And the Question is?...

Before the Democratic Debate in New York begins and we see for the first time in history an elephant's feathers fly, I'm going to put on my political psychic's hat and make a few predictions. First of all, this is the warmup to the GOP convention this summer, and the audience will provide Rove and company with some all-important clues to the metropolitan climate in the Northeast.

In general, the debate will hinge on the widening of the economic classes within the US, but are most glaring in a place like NYC. This audience knows firsthand how little the minimum wage offers a city dweller to survive upon and how much waste is generated in places like Albany, Wall Street and Madison Avenue (sorry, darling) in a striking contrast to the budget mindedness of the "little people" ... now comprising something like 70% of the electorate. Expect all the players to hit the economic note, but pay attention to how the tune is played and to which base it is directed. Small business owners? Industrial and factory workers? Corporate "cogs"?

Foreign affairs are also going to resonate deeply within this electorate. Expect the now common stance on Iraq, that we should generate a coalition of nations to help stabilize the area and either pull back troops or fully commit to the mission. (I personally favor the latter but the former seems to appeal to most of the white men on the dais.) However, the Gods have smiled upon the Dems with the horrific week of terrorism and violence in Haiti. With Aristede's departure the door is wide open to call the Administration on its' glaring inconsistencies in Foreign Policy.

And finally, Al Gore's "lockbox" will be less a Saturday Night Live one-liner and more a sobering reality for the majority of Americans. With the huge losses in the markets, privatized SSI is clearly suicidal. It will be quick work to point out that placing Social Security dollars into money market accounts is the equivalent of issuing lottery tickets to retirees. Greenspan will certainly have to resign before November, and Bush might take a hit today sufficient to sink his CREEP before it even solidifies and begins to actually do its work.

Now for the debaters themselves:

The Kentucky Fried Kennedy, John Edwards, will continue to suck up to JFK2 in a seriously creepy way. The pandering will be so obvious that even his core will switch alliances and his cumulative power at the convention in Boston will actually be diminished. Expect Edwards to take up the "two America" rallying cry with great aplomb here in the city. He will be considered as giving a solid performance unless he crushes the fragile hopes of the audience that always think they can make it to the top of the heap. He has to manage to sell that the country has changes so much that their current state jeopardizes their ability to ever change things. A solid number three.

It will be nearly impossible for Al Sharpton NOT to point out that a man who was NOT elected president just allowed terrorists 45 miles from our border to run out of town an elected president. The irony will be dripping form Sharpton today. This is home turf, and his wit and his metropolitan cred gives him an edge that gives him the win that only he can lose.

JFK2 will be extremely presidential today. He will be funny, he will show emotion and he might decide to take on Bush when it comes to Social Security. Most of all, Kerry will be calm, charming and smart. A solid second with the plurality of almost all the states next Tuesday. Kerry will point out the Christ in Christian and paint the antigay/lesbian GOP amendment as unchristian, immoral and unconstitutional. The GOP has really overstepped and seems tone deaf on this issue: with 3 million jobs lost, these voters care less about same sex marriage than they do about having enough to feed their families. Americans are definitely in the mood to live and let live especially since most politicians in our current government on both sides of the aisle are divorced, which is surely more damaging to the institution of marriage than commitment between same sex partners. Finally John Kerry will pitch his responses[onses to the Dilbert independents - the corporate cubicle dwellers who define the independent swing voters and NOT the Nascar anythings. It is how safe these folks - the middle management, middle wage, middle aged and middle market consumers - feel in the current economic climate and how worried they are about their kids dying overseas or their retirement years spent in declining standards of living.

Kucinich will be almost strident in his responses. The audience response to his message will be the most closely watched: if the audience takes to his anti corporate, anti war, anti pollution clarion call the political landscape will really change and perhaps for the better.

Let the games begin. I can hear Dan Rather in the distance. We'll see how prescient I really am. And if the Bush camp wants a decent political handicapper, don't give me a call. I'd vote for Lou Gerstner before I would vote for W again.

the Curmudgeon